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Function Power Tool

probability question?

When a large number of mass-produced electric light switches are examined by a quality inspector 3% are defective. Find the probability that a random sample of 10 will contain
(i) exactly 5 defective switches;
(ii) at least 2 defective switches.
also

5 power on a store shelf containing 12 power do not function properly. if 2 are selected at random from the shelf was is the probability that the first is defective and the second is not

This is an example of a binomial distribution, p = 0.03, q = 0.97, number of trials = 10.

The probability of the number of good switches in the sample being 10, 9, 8,.... and so on is given by the successive terms of the expansion of the expression :

(0.97 + 0.03)^10

so the probability of 5 good / 5 defective switches in the sample is the term

10C5 (0.97)^5 (0.03)^5

The probability that at least two switches are defective is best considered from the other direction: what is the probability that there is no more than one defective switch in the sample?

The probability of no defectives in the sample is (0.97)^10.

The probability of just one defective in the sample is 10(0.97)^9 (0.03)

So the probability of 0 or 1 defective is the sum of these probabilities, or

0.73742 + 0.22807 = 0.9655

Hence, the probability that 2 or more are defective is (1 - 0.9655) = 0.0345
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Probability that the first tool selected is faulty = 5 / 12

If the first one is defective, then there are 4 faulty ones in the remaining 11 . The probability that the next tool selected is not faulty is 7 /11.

The probability that the first one is faulty and the second one is not, therefore is (5 / 12) x (7 / 11) = 35 / 132 = 0.2652
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